🔗 Share this article

Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a Test.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, they beat them again. Another three years passed, same story. Another five-year gap and, yes, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to closer margins in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, their power, their chicanery, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that some may have held for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Past Encounters

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, set-piece issues.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests recently, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and 60 in the second half.

Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have needed to score in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? It's over.

But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. Vocal support. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.